The accuracy of general practitioner workforce projections

Area of Science:

• Health Workforce Planning
• Healthcare Management
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Health workforce projections are crucial for preventing imbalances in healthcare.
• Evaluating the accuracy of these projections is vital for their continued development and tenability.
• Dutch general practitioner workforce projections have been conducted since 2000 to inform health workforce planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the accuracy of Dutch general practitioner workforce projection techniques.
• To evaluate how projection accuracy is influenced by projection horizon and base period length.

Main Methods:

• Backtested a workforce projection model by comparing ex-post projections with observed general practitioner numbers (1998-2011).
• Used historical data averages for most elements, but observed training inflow to avoid policy interference.
• Tested projection accuracy with varying projection horizon lengths and base periods.

Main Results:

• The model generally underestimated the number of active general practitioners.
• Mean absolute percentage errors ranged from 1.9% to 14.9%, with improved accuracy in recent years.
• Shorter projection horizons and shorter base periods resulted in higher projection accuracy.

Conclusions:

• Forecasting future workforce size did not become more difficult between 1998 and 2011.
• Projections using shorter projection horizons and base periods are more accurate.
• Health workforce projections are feasible with relatively short data-based periods, but detailed data remain essential for monitoring.