Prediction and stability of reading problems in middle childhood

The longitudinal prediction of reading problems from fourth grade to sixth grade was investigated with a sample of 173 students. Reading problems at the end of sixth grade were defined by significantly below average performance (≤ 15th percentile) on reading factors defining word reading, fluency, and reading comprehension. Sixth grade poor reader status was predicted by fall of fourth grade passage reading fluency, spelling fluency, and the number of reading problems identified by teachers. Reading fluency and spelling fluency were significant predictors in logistic regression equation that combined to yield a screening battery with an area under the curve of .91. These results suggest that brief assessments of reading and spelling fluency in fourth grade may be able to identify students in middle childhood who have a reading problem or who are at risk for experiencing reading problems in sixth grade.