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Factors affecting the unmet demand for pharmacists: state-level analysis
Thomas N Taylor1, Katherine K Knapp, Mitchell J Barnett
1Eugene Applebaum College of Pharmacy & Health Sciences, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA.
Journal of the American Pharmacists Association : Japha
|July 30, 2013
Summary
State-level Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) is significantly influenced by unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth, and Medicare Part D. This model helps anticipate pharmacist job market trends.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmacy Workforce Analysis
- Labor Market Dynamics
Background:
- Understanding the factors influencing the Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) is crucial for workforce planning in the pharmacy sector.
- State-level economic and demographic data provide insights into regional pharmacy market dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the relationship between state-level ADI and key market indicators including unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth, and Medicare Part D.
- To develop a predictive model for state-level ADI based on identified market factors.
Main Methods:
- Cross-sectional time series analysis of U.S. state-level data from 2001 to 2010.
- A fixed-effects model was employed to assess the significance and predictive ability of independent variables on ADI.
- Independent variables included previous year ADI, unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth rates, and Medicare Part D enrollment.
Main Results:
- The developed model demonstrated a high explanatory power with an R-squared value of 0.79, indicating all tested variables were significant predictors of state-level ADIs.
- Ranked contributions to ADI were: previous year ADI, unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, and prescription growth rates.
- The model accurately predicted 2010 ADI values for 44 out of 51 states within a 10% margin, offering insights into market directions.
Conclusions:
- Unemployment rates, pharmacy graduates, prescription growth rates, and Medicare Part D significantly impacted state-level ADIs between 2001 and 2010.
- The identified relationships provide a framework for monitoring and anticipating future trends in the pharmacist job market.
- Continuous reexamination of these factors with emerging data is recommended for adaptive workforce planning.
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