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Social influence bias: a randomized experiment.

Lev Muchnik¹, Sinan Aral, Sean J Taylor

¹School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, 91905 Israel.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 10, 2013

Summary

Knowing aggregated online opinions biases decisions. Positive social influence leads to 32% more positive ratings and 25% higher final scores due to herding effects.

Area of Science:

Social Psychology
Human-Computer Interaction
Collective Intelligence

Background:

Modern society increasingly relies on aggregated digital opinions for decision-making.
Understanding the impact of social influence on collective judgment is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how knowledge of aggregated opinions influences individual decision-making.
To analyze the effects of positive and negative social influences on rating behavior.

Main Methods:

A large-scale randomized experiment was conducted on a social news aggregation website.
Individual rating behavior was analyzed under conditions of prior ratings and social influence.

Main Results:

Prior ratings significantly biased individual rating behavior.

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Positive social influence increased positive ratings by 32% and overall final ratings by 25% (herding effect).

Negative social influence prompted users to correct manipulated ratings, while positive influence amplified existing biases.

Conclusions:

Social influence, particularly positive herding, significantly distorts collective judgment on online platforms.
The observed herding effects are influenced by topic, user relationships (friends/enemies), opinion dynamics, and site tendencies.
Accurate interpretation of collective judgment requires accounting for social influence bias to enhance collective intelligence.