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Published on: May 30, 2017
Risk map of cholera infection for vaccine deployment: the eastern Kolkata case
Young Ae You1, Mohammad Ali, Suman Kanungo
1International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Plos One
|August 13, 2013
Summary
Cholera outbreaks are linked to socio-environmental factors in high-risk areas. Vaccination significantly reduced cholera risk, demonstrating the value of risk mapping for public health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Environmental Health
Background:
- Cholera remains a significant public health issue globally.
- A large cholera outbreak occurred in eastern Kolkata, India, in March-April 2010.
- Understanding socio-environmental risk factors is crucial for effective cholera vaccination strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate socio-environmental characteristics differentiating high-risk and low-risk cholera areas.
- To assess the impact of vaccination on the spatial distribution of cholera.
- To identify high-risk areas for targeted cholera interventions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of cholera cases and vaccination trial data from three Kolkata Municipal Corporation wards.
- Utilized a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify high-risk areas.
- Evaluated socio-environmental factors associated with cholera risk in pre- and post-vaccination periods.
Main Results:
- The GAM identified high-risk areas in the western part of the study area, correlating with the outbreak's epicenter.
- High-risk areas were characterized by poverty, unsafe water sources, and proximity to drainage canals.
- Cholera vaccine uptake was lower in high-risk areas compared to low-risk areas.
Conclusions:
- The GAM effectively predicted high-risk cholera outbreak areas, guiding intervention efforts.
- Vaccination demonstrated a significant decrease in cholera infection risk.
- GAM-based risk maps are valuable tools for policymakers in endemic regions for disease control.
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