Bayesian model aggregation for ensemble-based estimates of protein pKa values

This article investigates an ensemble-based technique called Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to improve the performance of protein amino acid pKa predictions. Structure-based pKa calculations play an important role in the mechanistic interpretation of protein structure and are also used to determine a wide range of protein properties. A diverse set of methods currently exist for pKa prediction, ranging from empirical statistical models to ab initio quantum mechanical approaches. However, each of these methods are based on a set of conceptual assumptions that can effect a model's accuracy and generalizability for pKa prediction in complicated biomolecular systems. We use BMA to combine eleven diverse prediction methods that each estimate pKa values of amino acids in staphylococcal nuclease. These methods are based on work conducted for the pKa Cooperative and the pKa measurements are based on experimental work conducted by the García-Moreno lab. Our cross-validation study demonstrates that the aggregated estimate obtained from BMA outperforms all individual prediction methods with improvements ranging from 45 to 73% over other method classes. This study also compares BMA's predictive performance to other ensemble-based techniques and demonstrates that BMA can outperform these approaches with improvements ranging from 27 to 60%. This work illustrates a new possible mechanism for improving the accuracy of pKa prediction and lays the foundation for future work on aggregate models that balance computational cost with prediction accuracy.