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Updated: May 8, 2026

A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: January 11, 2020
Natural progression model of cognition and physical functioning among people with mild cognitive impairment and
Ron L H Handels1, Weili Xu, Debora Rizzuto
1Alzheimer Centre Limburg, School for Mental Health and Neuroscience (MHeNS), University Medical Centre, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Background:
Empirical models of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease (AD) may help to evaluate new interventions for AD.
Objective:
We aimed to estimate AD-free survival time in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and decline of cognitive and physical function in AD cases.
Methods:
Within the Kungsholmen project, 153 incident MCI and 323 incident AD cases (international criteria) were identified during 9 years of follow-up in a cognitively healthy cohort of elderly people aged ≥75 at baseline (n = 1,082). Global cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and daily life function was evaluated with the Katz index of activities of daily living (ADL) at each follow-up examination. Data were analyzed using parametric survival analysis and mixed effect models.
Results:
Median AD-free survival time of 153 participants with incident MCI was 3.5 years. Among 323 incident AD cases, the cognitive decline was 1.84 MMSE points per year, which was significantly associated with age. Physical functioning declined by 0.38 ADL points per year and was significantly associated with age, education, and MMSE, but not with gender.
Conclusion:
Elderly people with MCI may develop AD in approximately 3.5 years. Both cognitive and physical function may decline gradually after AD onset. The empirical models can be used to evaluate long-term disease progression of new interventions for AD.
Insights
Individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) within 3.5 years. Cognitive and physical functions decline post-AD onset, informing intervention evaluations.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Neuroscience
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Empirical models are crucial for evaluating Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions.
- Understanding the natural history of AD is essential for clinical trial design.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate Alzheimer's disease-free survival time in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
- To quantify the decline in cognitive and physical function in diagnosed AD cases.
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal study of a cohort aged ≥75, identifying incident MCI and AD cases over 9 years.
- Assessed global cognitive function using Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and daily living activities (ADL).
- Analyzed data using parametric survival analysis and mixed-effects models.
Main Results:
- Median AD-free survival time for MCI was 3.5 years.
- Cognitive decline averaged 1.84 MMSE points/year, associated with age.
- Physical functioning declined by 0.38 ADL points/year, linked to age, education, and MMSE scores.
Conclusions:
- Elderly individuals with MCI may progress to AD in approximately 3.5 years.
- Both cognitive and physical functions show gradual decline after AD onset.
- Empirical models derived from this study can aid in assessing long-term AD intervention efficacy.
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