Natural progression model of cognition and physical functioning among people with mild cognitive impairment and

Ron L H Handels1, Weili Xu, Debora Rizzuto

  • 1Alzheimer Centre Limburg, School for Mental Health and Neuroscience (MHeNS), University Medical Centre, Maastricht, The Netherlands.

Abstract

Insights

Individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) within 3.5 years. Cognitive and physical functions decline post-AD onset, informing intervention evaluations.

Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Neuroscience
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Empirical models are crucial for evaluating Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions.
  • Understanding the natural history of AD is essential for clinical trial design.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate Alzheimer's disease-free survival time in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
  • To quantify the decline in cognitive and physical function in diagnosed AD cases.

Main Methods:

  • Longitudinal study of a cohort aged ≥75, identifying incident MCI and AD cases over 9 years.
  • Assessed global cognitive function using Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and daily living activities (ADL).
  • Analyzed data using parametric survival analysis and mixed-effects models.

Main Results:

  • Median AD-free survival time for MCI was 3.5 years.
  • Cognitive decline averaged 1.84 MMSE points/year, associated with age.
  • Physical functioning declined by 0.38 ADL points/year, linked to age, education, and MMSE scores.

Conclusions:

  • Elderly individuals with MCI may progress to AD in approximately 3.5 years.
  • Both cognitive and physical functions show gradual decline after AD onset.
  • Empirical models derived from this study can aid in assessing long-term AD intervention efficacy.

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