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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 8, 2026

Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack
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Published on: May 15, 2020

Identifying probable suicide clusters in wales using national mortality data.

Phillip Jones1, David Gunnell, Stephen Platt

  • 1College of Medicine, Institute of Life Sciences 2, Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom.

Plos One
|September 10, 2013
PubMed
Summary

A statistical analysis found a possible suicide cluster among young people in Bridgend, Wales, between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller and shorter than media reports suggested, highlighting the need to investigate media influence.

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Published on: May 15, 2020

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Statistical Analysis

Background:

  • Suicide clusters, defined as suicides occurring close in time and space, may account for up to 2% of youth suicides.
  • In 2008, national and international media extensively covered a suspected suicide cluster among young people in Bridgend, Wales.
  • The study aimed to statistically evaluate the evidence for this apparent cluster, including its size and temporal/geographical extent.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically investigate the evidence for a suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend, Wales.
  • To determine the temporal and geographical boundaries of any identified suicide cluster.
  • To assess the size and significance of the Bridgend suicide cluster in the context of media attention.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized official mortality statistics for Wales (2000-2009) from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS).
  • Employed Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics (SaTScan v9.1) for temporo-spatial analysis of suicide deaths (aged 15+).
  • Conducted subgroup analysis for 15-34 year olds, considering probable suicides (suicide or undetermined intent) and possible suicides (including accidental poisoning/hanging).

Main Results:

  • Temporo-spatial analysis found no statistically significant clusters for probable suicides (suicide or undetermined intent).
  • However, a statistically significant temporo-spatial cluster (p=0.029) of possible suicides (n=10) among 15-34 year olds was identified in Bridgend (Dec 2007-Feb 2008).
  • This identified cluster represented less than 1% of possible youth suicides in Wales over the decade.

Conclusions:

  • A possible suicide cluster involving young people in Bridgend occurred between December 2007 and February 2008.
  • This statistically identified cluster was smaller and shorter in duration than the phenomenon reported by the media.
  • Further research is needed to understand factors influencing the cluster's onset and cessation, particularly the role of media coverage.