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Diagnostic probability function for acute coronary heart disease garnered from experts' tacit knowledge
Johann Steurer1, Ulrike Held, Olli S Miettinen
1Horten Centre for Patient-Oriented Research and Knowledge Transfer, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zurich, Pestalozzistrasse 24, CH-8091 Zurich, Switzerland.
This study shows it is feasible to capture expert diagnostic knowledge as diagnostic probability functions (DPFs). This method can help develop expert systems for clinical decision-making in diagnosing acute coronary heart disease (ACHD).
Area of Science:
- Medical Informatics
- Clinical Decision Support
- Diagnostic Probability Modeling
Background:
- Diagnostic probability functions (DPFs) are crucial for understanding how diagnostic indicators influence disease probability but are often unavailable.
- Tacit knowledge of diagnostic experts is difficult to quantify and utilize in clinical practice.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate a method for eliciting and formalizing diagnostic experts' case-specific tacit knowledge into DPFs.
- To illustrate the potential for developing diagnostic expert systems based on this formalized knowledge.
Main Methods:
- Presented experienced emergency department physicians with hypothetical cases for diagnosing acute coronary heart disease (ACHD).
- Collected expert-specific probability estimates for each case.
- Translated median expert probabilities into a logistic DPF for ACHD.
Main Results:
- Successfully generated a DPF representing typical diagnostic probability for ACHD based on diagnostic indicators.
- Observed significant variability in expert probability estimates for individual cases.
Conclusions:
- Garnering expert tacit knowledge into DPFs is a feasible approach.
- This methodology can pave the way for developing advanced, practice-guiding diagnostic expert systems.
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