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Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict
Solomon M Hsiang1, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel
1Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. shsiang@berkeley.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 14, 2013
Summary
Climate change significantly fuels human conflict. Warmer temperatures and extreme rainfall increase violence, with global warming potentially amplifying conflict rates worldwide.
Area of Science:
- Interdisciplinary research combining climate science, social sciences, and humanities.
Background:
- Growing evidence suggests a link between climatic changes and human conflict.
- Previous studies often lacked comprehensive analysis or quantitative rigor.
Purpose of the Study:
- To synthesize and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies on climate and conflict.
- To establish the extent and nature of climate's causal influence on human conflict.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of 60 high-quality quantitative studies.
- Analysis across diverse disciplines including archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology.
- Examination of findings across various spatial and temporal scales and global regions.
Main Results:
- A significant convergence of evidence confirms a causal link between climatic events and human conflict.
- A one standard deviation increase in climate towards warmer temperatures or extreme rainfall correlates with a 4% rise in interpersonal violence and a 14% rise in intergroup conflict.
- Climate's impact on conflict is substantial and geographically widespread.
Conclusions:
- Climatic shifts demonstrably increase the frequency and intensity of human conflict.
- Projected global warming of 2-4 standard deviations by 2050 could lead to substantially amplified conflict rates.
- Addressing anthropogenic climate change is critical to mitigating future societal instability and violence.
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