Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model
S Delphin1, F J Escobedo, A Abd-Elrahman
1School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, 350 Newins Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
Journal of Environmental Management
|September 17, 2013
Summary
Hurricanes pose significant risks to forest ecosystem services. This study quantifies potential losses in carbon storage and timber volume in Florida
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Forestry
- Climate Change Science
Background:
- Climate change is predicted to increase hurricane impacts on ecosystems.
- Understanding these impacts is crucial for landowners and policymakers.
- Forest ecosystem services like carbon storage and timber are vulnerable to hurricane damage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify forest damage risk zones from hurricanes.
- To estimate potential losses in aboveground carbon storage and timber volume.
- To develop a model for assessing hurricane impacts on ecosystem services.
Main Methods:
- Utilized land cover and forest inventory data.
- Employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model.
- Developed a decision tree framework incorporating biophysical factors and hurricane wind risk maps.
Main Results:
- Identified high forest damage risk (HR) zones in Florida watersheds.
- Estimated that 31% of carbon storage in Lower Suwannee River (LS) and 0.5% in Pensacola Bay (PB) are in HR zones.
- Found 15% of timber volume in LS and 0.7% in PB are in HR zones.
Conclusions:
- The developed model effectively identifies areas vulnerable to hurricane damage.
- Results highlight significant potential losses in key ecosystem services.
- The model can inform forest management, scenario planning, and impact assessments of other drivers.
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