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Related Experiment Videos

Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.

M Giovanna Merli¹, S Philip Morgan

¹Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke Population Research Institute and Duke Institute of Global Health, Duke University.

Population

|September 17, 2013

Summary

China

Area of Science:

Demography
Sociology
Public Health

Background:

China's total fertility rate (TFR) is low, ranging from 1.4 to 1.6, placing it among low-fertility countries.
Future fertility trends in China are debated, hinging on whether personal fertility desires exceed state objectives.
Relaxing family planning policies could potentially increase fertility if individual preferences are higher than current goals.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the potential impact of relaxed family planning policies on fertility intentions in Shanghai.
To assess whether Chinese individuals would have more children if policy restrictions were eased.

Main Methods:

A probability sample of Shanghai residents (registered and migrant) was surveyed.
Direct questions were posed regarding intentions to have additional children following policy relaxation.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

The study found that most urban residents in Shanghai intend to have small families (one or two children).
Fewer than 14% of respondents indicated they would revise fertility intentions upward if policies were relaxed.
Even a potential 10% increase in fertility is uncertain due to factors that may suppress fertility.

Conclusions:

Empirical data from Shanghai suggests that relaxing family planning policies may not lead to a substantial fertility increase.
Individual fertility intentions in this urban Chinese setting appear to favor smaller family sizes.
Findings provide a data-driven perspective on future fertility trends, independent of policy constraints.