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Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping

C Jessica E Metcalf1, Katie Hampson, Andrew J Tatem

  • 1Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom ; Fogarty International Center; National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America ; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.

Plos One
|September 17, 2013
PubMed

Insights

Metapopulation rescue effects, crucial for infectious disease persistence, were quantified. Island nations face double the extinction risk compared to mainland countries, highlighting the impact of community size on disease survival.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Metapopulation rescue effects are theorized to sustain acute immunizing infections.
  • The quantitative impact of spatial coupling on disease persistence remains largely unmeasured.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify metapopulation rescue effects for four major childhood infections.
  • To compare disease persistence in island versus mainland countries.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized global World Health Organization (WHO) incidence data for four childhood infections.
  • Compared disease persistence between island and non-island countries.
  • Controlled for variables including vaccination coverage, birth rates, and economic development.

Main Results:

  • Island countries exhibit a significantly higher relative risk of disease extinction, approximately double that of mainland countries.
  • Infections with longer infectious periods demonstrated stronger metapopulation rescue effects.
  • Disease persistence is demonstrably controlled by demographic factors and local community size.

Conclusions:

  • This study provides the first quantitative evidence of metapopulation rescue effects on infectious disease persistence.
  • Findings underscore the critical role of population size and connectivity in disease dynamics.
  • The results emphasize the vulnerability of isolated populations to disease extinction.

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