Mapping monkeypox transmission risk through time and space in the Congo Basin.
Yoshinori Nakazawa1, R Ryan Lash, Darin S Carroll
1Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America ; Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, United States of America.
Plos One
|September 17, 2013
Summary
Recent environmental changes in the Congo Basin correlate with monkeypox transmission patterns. Ecological niche models help identify areas suitable for this public health concern.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Science
- Disease Ecology
Background:
- Monkeypox is a significant public health issue in the Congo Basin.
- Recent years show changing patterns in human monkeypox case occurrences.
- The drivers of these changing patterns, including environmental factors, are not fully understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the correlation between environmental changes and monkeypox transmission in the Congo Basin.
- To assess the utility of ecological niche modeling for understanding disease spread.
Main Methods:
- Ecological niche models were developed using historical human monkeypox case data from the Congo Basin.
- Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets from the post-smallpox eradication era were utilized.
- Models were projected onto contemporary environmental data to create current suitability maps.
Main Results:
- Ecological niche models successfully predicted spatial patterns of monkeypox occurrences.
- Environmental changes across the Congo Basin are associated with recent trends in human monkeypox infections.
- The study identified areas suitable for monkeypox transmission based on environmental suitability.
Conclusions:
- Environmental shifts are linked to contemporary monkeypox transmission dynamics in the Congo Basin.
- Ecological niche modeling is a valuable tool for identifying suitable habitats for diseases like monkeypox.
- This approach aids in understanding and potentially mitigating the spread of poorly understood zoonotic diseases.
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