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The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?
Navjit Sagoo1, Paul Valdes, Rachel Flecker
1School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, , University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
Summary
This study models the Early Eocene
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Modeling
Background:
- Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) geological data reveal significant global warming and unusually warm polar temperatures.
- Existing climate models struggle to accurately simulate these polar surface temperatures, creating the 'equable climate problem'.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address the 'equable climate problem' by modeling the Early Eocene climate using an ensemble approach with perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters.
- To identify model parameters that accurately simulate past warm climates and perform well for present-day conditions.
Main Methods:
- Performed over 100 climate simulations with perturbed physics parameters.
- Identified optimal simulations that best fit Early Eocene proxy data.
- Analyzed atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and cloud properties in optimal simulations.
Main Results:
- Successfully simulated Early Eocene warmth at a lower carbon dioxide (CO2) level (560 ppmv) than many other models.
- Identified specific parameter sets that accurately reproduce Early Eocene warmth and also fit Last Glacial Maximum and present-day climates.
- The optimal model exhibits a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7°C, which is within the range and below the mean of IPCC AR4 models.
Conclusions:
- A novel ensemble approach with perturbed parameters successfully simulates the Early Eocene 'equable climate problem'.
- The identified parameter set demonstrates robust performance across diverse paleoclimates and the present-day climate.
- The model's lower climate sensitivity suggests a potential refinement for future climate change projections.
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