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Updated: May 7, 2026
06:48
The HoneyComb Paradigm for Research on Collective Human Behavior
Published on: January 19, 2019
War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies
Peter Turchin1, Thomas E Currie, Edward A L Turner
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06235-3042.
Summary
Large-scale societies evolved due to competition, primarily warfare, driven by military technology and geography. This cultural evolutionary model accurately predicts the rise of complex societies across Eurasia.
Area of Science:
- Cultural evolution
- Anthropology
- Sociology
Background:
- Human societies transformed from small, cooperative groups to large, anonymous states.
- Understanding the variation in state formation across populations remains a challenge.
- Existing verbal models lack quantitative predictions for testing with empirical data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and test a cultural evolutionary model predicting the emergence of large-scale complex societies.
- To identify key factors driving the spatial and temporal distribution of historical states.
- To quantitatively assess the role of institutions and competition in state-building.
Main Methods:
- Developed a cultural evolutionary model simulating societal growth and competition.
- Incorporated factors like warfare intensity, military technology diffusion, and geographic landscape.
- Tested model predictions against a dataset of historical large-scale societies in Afroeurasia (1,500 BCE–1,500 CE).
Main Results:
- The model successfully predicted the spatiotemporal spread of large-scale societies, explaining 65% of the variance.
- Warfare intensity, influenced by military technologies and geography, was a key driver.
- An alternative model without military technology diffusion explained only 16% of variance.
Conclusions:
- Costly institutions enabling large group function evolved due to intense inter-societal competition, particularly warfare.
- The spread of military technologies and geographic factors significantly influenced the rise of complex societies.
- Findings support institutional theories of state-building and offer insights into the correlation between state history and societal development.
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