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Predictability of the Ningaloo Niño/Niña
Takeshi Doi1, Swadhin K Behera, Toshio Yamagata
11] Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan [2] Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan.
Scientific Reports
|October 9, 2013
Summary
The Ningaloo Niño, a marine heatwave off Western Australia, can be predicted two seasons in advance using advanced climate models. This breakthrough aids in developing early warning systems for extreme weather events.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Coastal oceanic warm events, like the Ningaloo Niño, significantly impact regional ecosystems and industries.
- Predicting these events is crucial for mitigating socioeconomic consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the seasonal predictability of the Ningaloo Niño using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model.
- To assess the model's skill in predicting extreme Ningaloo Niño events.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model.
- Analyzed the model's performance in predicting the Ningaloo Niño/Niña phenomenon.
Main Results:
- The Ningaloo Niño/Niña, maturing in austral summer, demonstrates predictability up to two seasons ahead.
- The extreme 2011 Ningaloo Niño event was successfully predicted nine months in advance.
- Prediction skill is strongly linked to the accurate forecasting of La Niña events in the Pacific.
Conclusions:
- Seasonal prediction of the Ningaloo Niño is feasible, offering potential for early warning systems.
- Model improvements are needed to accurately capture the early evolution and peak amplitude of the event.
- Successful prediction of extreme events can support regional adaptation and resilience strategies.
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