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Measurement of Lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster
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Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles.

Herbert J A Rolden1, David van Bodegom, Wilbert B van den Hout

  • 1Leyden Academy on Vitality and Ageing, , Leiden, The Netherlands.

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|October 9, 2013
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Summary

Mortality rates rise with economic growth, affecting both middle-aged and older adults. This economic-mortality link is observed across developed nations, prompting further investigation into its causes.

Keywords:
ECONOMICSELDERLYMORTALITYPUBLIC HEALTH

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Public Health
  • Economics

Background:

  • Mortality is increasingly concentrated in old age, necessitating identification of its determinants.
  • Economic growth has been counter-intuitively linked to higher mortality rates at all ages.
  • Work-stress partially explains this association but not for retired individuals.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between economic growth and mortality rates in middle-aged and older populations.
  • To determine if the association between economic cycles and mortality differs between age groups or sexes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database (1950-2008).
  • Analyzed data for middle-aged (40-44) and older (70-74) individuals in 19 developed countries.
  • Employed regression analyses on de-trended data, accounting for autocorrelation and using random effects models.

Main Results:

  • A pro-cyclical association between the economy and mortality was observed in most countries, particularly for men.
  • A 1% GDP increase correlated with a 0.36% rise in mortality for 70-74-year-old men and 0.38% for 40-44-year-old men.
  • The effect for women was smaller, with a 0.18% increase for 70-74-year-olds and 0.15% for 40-44-year-olds.

Conclusions:

  • Mortality rates in developed countries rise during economic upturns and fall during downturns, affecting both older and middle-aged populations similarly.
  • Traditional explanations like work-stress and traffic accidents do not account for these findings.
  • Reduced social support and informal care during economic booms may play a role, requiring further investigation.