FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Computational Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Mathematical and computational models are crucial for evaluating public health interventions, especially for novel scenarios like pandemic influenza.
• Disease spread is influenced by population mixing patterns, which are affected by local demographics, household structures, and commuting behaviors.
• Socioeconomic factors, including race, income, and education, significantly impact population health behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce FRED (Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics), an open-source agent-based modeling system.
• To provide a tool for simulating pandemic influenza spread and evaluating public health interventions.

Main Methods:

• FRED utilizes open-access, census-based synthetic populations to represent demographic and geographic heterogeneity.
• The system incorporates realistic social networks, including households, schools, and workplaces.
• Epidemic models are available for all US states and counties, as well as selected international locations.

Main Results:

• FRED is a freely available, open-source agent-based modeling system.
• It is based on established models for pandemic influenza studies.
• It captures population heterogeneities through synthetic populations and realistic social networks.

Conclusions:

• FRED enables state and county public health planners to explore potential influenza epidemic effects in specific regions.
• The tool aids in evaluating interventions like vaccination programs and school closures.
• FRED is open-source to foster development of better modeling tools and open discussion on public health policy evaluation.