Distribution, seasonal variation & dengue transmission prediction in Sisaket, Thailand

Environmental factors including weather variables may play a significant role in the transmission of dengue. This study investigated the effect of seasonal variation on the abundance of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae and explored the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in Sisaket, Thailand.

The monthly mosquito larval surveys were carried out in urban and rural areas in Sisaket, Thailand from January to December 2010. Data on monthly-reported cases of dengue fever over the period 2004-2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health. Weather data over the same period were obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department. Chi-square test was used to find the differences relating to seasonal variability, areas of study, and mosquito species factors using entomological survey data. Time series Poisson regression analysis was performed using data on monthly weather variables and dengue cases.

There were more Ae. aegypti larvae per household than Ae. albopictus larvae in the winter and rainy seasons. More Aedes larvae per household were found in the rainy season than in the winter and summer seasons. Relative humidity at a lag of one month and rainy days in the current month were significant predictors of dengue incidence in Sisaket.

Increased rain during the current month and less humidity during the previous month might trigger a higher incidence of dengue epidemic in Sisaket. The present findings suggest that the dengue incidence corresponds with the number of Aedes larvae. The seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks coincide with the rainy season.