"Wrong, but useful": negotiating uncertainty in infectious disease modelling.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Infectious disease dynamical models are crucial for informing containment policies.
• Model prediction is inherently imperfect, leading to uncertainty.
• Assessing model quality is essential for effective use in policy decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the nature of uncertainty in infectious disease modeling.
• To understand how model credibility and usability are negotiated.
• To explore the role of context in the interpretation and utility of model outputs.

Main Methods:

• Qualitative analysis of interviews with scientists, policymakers, and advisors.
• Content analysis of policy documents, scientific publications, and epidemic inquiry reports.
• Examination of the discourse surrounding uncertainty in infectious disease models.

Main Results:

• Uncertainty in infectious disease models is multi-layered, flexible, and context-dependent.
• Model credibility and usability are outcomes of negotiation within surrounding networks and discourses.
• Discursive devices allow for 'interpretive flexibility' of model uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• The utility of models in uncertain situations relies on this flexibility and negotiation.
• Model usefulness and authority can be influenced by their functional status in social and political environments.
• Contextual framing and interpretation are key to decision-making processes involving model outputs.