Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Agricultural Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Insect pollination is vital for global crop production, with over 75% of major crops relying on it.
• Declining pollinator populations raise concerns about crop yields and economic stability.
• Accurate knowledge of pollinator distribution is essential for assessing pollination service availability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel method for predicting geographical patterns of crop pollination services.
• To integrate wild and managed pollinator data with crop needs.
• To identify areas at risk of insufficient pollination services.

Main Methods:

• Integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with a pollination service model (PSM).
• Utilized nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (e.g., honey bees) and agricultural data from Great Britain.
• Calibrated SDMs on bee and hoverfly species, assessing predictor importance and model performance.

Main Results:

• The integrated SDM-PSM approach successfully predicted pollination service patterns for crops like field beans.
• Spatial characterization of wild and managed pollinator contributions was achieved.
• Identified specific areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision.

Conclusions:

• The developed method provides a robust tool for mapping pollinator availability and assessing pollination risks.
• This approach can inform targeted interventions to support crop pollination.
• The framework is adaptable for investigating pollinator-crop mismatches under environmental or policy changes.