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Noise-induced regime shifts: A quantitative characterization.

Sayantari Ghosh1, Amit Kumar Pal, Indrani Bose

  • 1Department of Physics, Bose Institute, 93/1, A. P. C. Road, 700009, Kolkata, India.

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We introduce the propensity transition point, a new quantitative measure to detect stochastic regime shifts in complex systems. This method aids in understanding noise-driven changes, even away from critical bifurcation points.

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Area of Science:

  • Complex Systems Dynamics
  • Mathematical Ecology
  • Systems Biology

Background:

  • Complex dynamical systems exhibit abrupt regime shifts at saddle-node bifurcation points.
  • Stochastic components in these systems lead to noise-driven regime shifts, even when not near bifurcation points.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel quantitative measure, the propensity transition point, for identifying stochastic regime shifts.
  • To demonstrate the utility of this measure in diverse complex systems.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the propensity transition point as a quantitative indicator.
  • Application and illustration using the one-variable May model (ecology).
  • Application and illustration using the genetic toggle model (genetic circuit).

Main Results:

  • The propensity transition point effectively indicates stochastic regime shifts in tested models.
  • The method's applicability is validated with experimental data from mycobacterial persistence switching.

Conclusions:

  • The propensity transition point is a valuable tool for analyzing stochastic regime shifts in complex dynamical systems.
  • This measure enhances the understanding of noise-induced transitions in ecological, biological, and other complex systems.