Source attribution of air pollutant concentrations and trends in the southeastern aerosol research and...

A new approach for determining the contributions of emission sources to trends in concentrations of particulate matter and gases is developed using the chemical mass balance (CMB) method and the U.S. EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI). The method extends our earlier analysis by using temporally varying emission profiles and includes accounting of primary and secondary particulate organic carbon with an empirical regression calculation. The model offers a potentially important tool for verifying that annual emission reductions by major source category have yielded changes in ambient pollutant concentrations. Using long-term measurements from well-instrumented monitoring sites, observed trends in ambient pollutant concentrations at urban and rural locations can be attributed to emission changes. Trends apportionment is conducted on 2000-2011 ambient monitoring data from the SEARCH network with NEI emissions data adjusted to improve interinventory consistency. The application accounts for major source category influences in southeastern U.S. regional trends; local anomalies are noted. In the SEARCH region, open burning is important as a source of CO and carbonaceous particles. Improved agreement between predicted and measured particulate carbon is obtained by increasing mobile diesel exhaust and area-source particulate carbon emissions by 1 and 20%, respectively, compared with NEI values. The method is general and is applicable to data from any monitoring site that is instrumented for criteria air pollutants, associated gases, and particle composition.