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Using search queries for malaria surveillance, Thailand
Alex J Ocampo, Rumi Chunara, John S Brownstein1
1Harvard Medical School, 25 Shattuck Street, Boston 02115, MA, USA. john_brownstein@harvard.edu.
Malaria Journal
|November 6, 2013
Summary
Google search queries can effectively track malaria trends in Thailand, offering a cost-effective public health surveillance tool. This study demonstrates the potential of web-based data for real-time infectious disease monitoring.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Digital Health
Background:
- Internet search query trends correlate with infectious disease incidence.
- Real-time malaria surveillance is critical in Thailand due to re-emergence and drug resistance.
- This study investigates Google search queries for malaria surveillance in Thailand.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the utility of Google search queries for malaria surveillance in Thailand.
- To develop and validate predictive models for malaria incidence using search query data.
- To assess the cost-effectiveness and real-time capabilities of this digital surveillance method.
Main Methods:
- Acquired official Thai malaria case data (2005-2009) from WHO.
- Identified potential malaria-related search queries using Google Correlate and physician surveys.
- Built and evaluated four linear regression models based on query subsets, assessing predictive accuracy and correlation with case data.
Main Results:
- Models demonstrated strong correlation with official malaria incidence (0.75-0.92).
- Microscopy-related queries and physician-provided queries showed high accuracy, with the latter capturing seasonal peaks.
- Google search query models adequately estimated malaria activity trends from 2005-2010.
Conclusions:
- Google search queries show potential as valid real-time indicators of malaria incidence.
- This methodology offers a cost-effective complement to traditional public health surveillance.
- Leveraging web-based data can significantly improve public health monitoring and response strategies.
