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Temporal discounting and preference reversals in choice between delayed outcomes.

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People often prefer smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed ones. However, adding equal delays to both options can reverse this preference, challenging standard economic models of decision-making.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science
  • Psychology

Background:

  • The standard discounted utility model assumes consistent preferences over time.
  • Previous research indicates a tendency to favor immediate rewards, a phenomenon known as temporal discounting.
  • Understanding the nuances of temporal discounting is crucial for explaining self-control and economic choices.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate preference reversals when constant delays are added to both immediate and delayed monetary rewards.
  • To test the predictions of the discounted utility model regarding temporal choices.
  • To examine how the rate of discounting varies with monetary amount.

Main Methods:

  • Subjects made choices between hypothetical monetary amounts offered at different delays.
  • Preference reversals were systematically observed by adjusting delays for fixed pairs of monetary outcomes.
  • Mathematical functions (linear and quadratic) were used to model the relationship between delays at preference reversal points.

Main Results:

  • Preference reversals occurred when constant delays were applied to both immediate and delayed rewards, contradicting the discounted utility model.
  • The relationship between the delay to the larger amount and the delay to the smaller amount at preference reversal was non-linear for most subjects.
  • Discounting rates decreased as the monetary amount increased, indicated by increasing intercepts in the fitted functions.

Conclusions:

  • Standard economic models of temporal discounting may not fully capture human decision-making under delay.
  • The observed non-linear discounting suggests limitations of exponential and hyperbolic models.
  • Monetary amount significantly influences the rate at which individuals discount future rewards.