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Natural, persistent oscillations in a spatial multi-strain disease system with application to dengue
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Plos Computational Biology
|November 9, 2013
Summary
Epidemic outbreaks and strain dominance in infectious diseases like dengue can occur without immune competition. Stochastic transmission differences alone can drive these complex dynamics, impacting disease distribution.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Infectious diseases often show fluctuating prevalence and epidemic outbreaks.
- Multi-strain pathogens like dengue exhibit complex temporal dynamics and strain oscillations.
- Previous models often attributed these dynamics to strong immune interactions between strains.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if epidemiological dynamics in multi-strain systems can arise without immune competition.
- To explain dengue serotype oscillations and epidemic outbreaks using alternative mechanisms.
- To assess the role of stochastic transmission differences in driving disease dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Development of spatially explicit, multi-strain epidemiological models.
- Simulation of disease transmission dynamics under varying conditions.
- Analysis of emergent patterns including oscillations and epidemic outbreaks.
Main Results:
- Multi-strain systems can exhibit epidemic outbreaks and strain oscillations without immune competition.
- Amplification of natural stochastic differences in transmission drives these dynamics.
- Observed dynamics include persistent oscillations and sequential dominance of dengue serotypes.
Conclusions:
- Immune competition is not the sole driver of complex dynamics in multi-strain infectious diseases.
- Stochastic transmission variations can sufficiently explain observed epidemiological patterns.
- Findings have implications for understanding disease distribution and inferring immune interactions.
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