A survey sampling approach for pesticide monitoring of community water systems using groundwater as a drinking water source

The ability to infer human exposure to substances from drinking water using monitoring data helps determine and/or refine potential risks associated with drinking water consumption. We describe a survey sampling approach and its application to an atrazine groundwater monitoring study to adequately characterize upper exposure centiles and associated confidence intervals with predetermined precision. Study design and data analysis included sampling frame definition, sample stratification, sample size determination, allocation to strata, analysis weights, and weighted population estimates. Sampling frame encompassed 15 840 groundwater community water systems (CWS) in 21 states throughout the U. S. Median, and 95th percentile atrazine concentrations were 0.0022 and 0.024 ppb, respectively, for all CWS. Statistical estimates agreed with historical monitoring results, suggesting that the study design was adequate and robust. This methodology makes no assumptions regarding the occurrence distribution (e.g., lognormality); thus analyses based on the design-induced distribution provide the most robust basis for making inferences from the sample to target population.