State residence restrictions and forcible rape rates: a multistate quasi-experimental analysis of UCR data

This study examines whether the presence of state residence restrictions resulted in changes in statewide rates of forcible rape. It builds on the limited geographic coverage of prior studies by including state-level Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data across 19 years for 49 states and the District of Columbia. It uses a quasi-experimental research method based on a longitudinal fixed-effects panel model design, which can help control for relatively static differences between states. Results indicate that when a state residence restriction was present, regardless of how it was measured, rates of UCR forcible rape were higher in the state than when the policy was not present. This suggests that residence restrictions, at least at the state level, are not useful as an overall crime prevention measure, but may be useful for increasing detection or reporting levels of such crimes. However, results also suggest that the size of the increase varied by whether the policy only applied to offenders with child victims or also included those with adult victims. Implications for research and policy are discussed.