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This study introduces conditional predictability for complex systems. A cellular automaton model shows how synchrony and incoherence coexist in oscillators, with incoherence exhibiting much longer periodicity.

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Area of Science:

  • Complex Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Nonlinear Dynamics

Background:

  • Predictable dynamics can generate complex behavior in systems like cellular automata.
  • Understanding emergent complexity is crucial in various scientific fields.
  • Characterizing systems with both synchronous and incoherent behavior is challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe a simple mechanism for the emergence of complexity from predictable dynamics.
  • To introduce the concept of conditional predictability for systems with piecewise known trajectories.
  • To model discrete chimera-like states in ensembles of identical oscillators.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a cellular automaton model.
  • Analysis of system dynamics exhibiting both synchrony and incoherence.
  • Comparison of periodicity in synchronous and incoherent regions.

Main Results:

  • A mechanism for emergent complexity from simple rules is demonstrated.
  • Conditional predictability is defined for systems with partially known trajectories.
  • The cellular automaton model successfully replicates chimera-like states.
  • The incoherent regions display periodicity three orders of magnitude longer than synchronous oscillations.

Conclusions:

  • Emergent complexity can arise from simple, predictable rules.
  • Conditional predictability offers a new framework for analyzing complex systems.
  • The proposed model provides insights into the coexistence of order and chaos in oscillator ensembles.