A method of analyzing cultivar x location x year experiments: a new stability parameter

Assessment of cultivar performance in a cultivar x location x year experiment is often difficult because of the presence of a location x year interaction. Our objective is to demonstrate a method on separation of environment effects (location x year) into predictable and unpredictabel components. The analysis consists of two parts: (1) a regression analysis based on location effects (averaged over years), assuming that the location means represent predictable environmental variation; and (2) the estimation of stability (denoted type 4) based on the years within location mean squares, assuming that years within location represent unpredictable environmental variation. From the regression analysis in (1), a breeder can determine the optimum range of locations in which a cultivar is well suited, and from (2) he can choose the most stable cultivars. The advantage of type 4 stability is that it is independent of the other cultivars included in the test and of the regression coefficient estimated for predictable variation. Three sets of published data are used to illustrate the analysis. Type 4 stability is compared with type 3 stability (deviation mean square from regression on environmental index) for genetic consistency. The analyses suggest that type 4 stability is consistent and is therefore a potential genetic parameter, but type 3 stability is not.