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Expected Value01:15

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The expected value is known as the "long-term" average or mean. This means that over the long term of experimenting over and over, you would expect this average. The expected average is represented by the symbol μ. It is calculated as follows:In the equation, x is an event, and P(x) is the probability of the event occurring.The expected value has practical applications in decision theory.This text is adapted from Openstax, Introductory Statistics, Section 4.2 Mean or Expected Value and...
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Related Experiment Video

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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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An expected utility maximizer walks into a bar…

Daniel R Burghart1, Paul W Glimcher, Stephanie C Lazzaro

  • 1Department of Economics, University of Zürich, Blümlisalpstrasse 10, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
|November 19, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Alcohol consumption (BAC) did not affect adherence to economic choice axioms. However, women became less risk-averse as BAC increased, unlike men, with risk preferences equalizing at high BACs.

Keywords:
AlcoholExpected utility theoryField experimentRationalityRisk aversion

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Neuroscience
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • The generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) and independence axiom are foundational in economic theory.
  • Understanding how factors like alcohol consumption influence decision-making is crucial for policy and individual behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and adherence to economic choice axioms.
  • To explore gender-specific variations in risk preferences as a function of BAC.

Main Methods:

  • Field experiments conducted in a bar setting.
  • Measurement of participants' blood alcohol concentration (BAC).
  • Assessment of adherence to GARP and independence axioms, and evaluation of risk preferences.

Main Results:

  • Individuals with elevated BACs adhered to GARP and independence axioms similarly to sober individuals.
  • Men showed no significant changes in risk preferences across varying BAC levels.
  • Women exhibited increased risk aversion at lower BACs, transitioning to greater risk tolerance as BAC increased.

Conclusions:

  • Alcohol consumption, within the tested range, does not significantly impair adherence to fundamental economic choice principles.
  • BAC influences risk-taking behavior differently in men and women, with converging preferences at high BAC levels.
  • Findings have implications for understanding alcohol's impact on decision-making and informing policy.