Predicting the potential of open-pollinating populations for the production of superior F1 hybrids

The distributive properties of a single population or of a population resulting from a cross between two populations are reproduced when inbreds randomly extracted from the population itself or from the two parental populations are randomly paired. Hence, population parameters that are usually obtained during a breeding programme can be used to predict the performance of the F1 hybrids that can be derived from them at that stage. Multiple allelism, epistasis and deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibria should not cause biasis to the predictions. While in theory genotype x environment interaction and linkage disequilibrium may disturb the predictions, in practice they are unlikely to create problems that cannot be accommodated. Genotypic and phenotypic predictions of the proportions of the F1 hybrid distribution scoring above or below a given standard are made and analysed for three characters, weight of the ears, plant height and height of the ear, in two populations of maize per se and their interpopulational cross. Because no random inbred lines from the experimental populations are presently available we cannot check our predictions. However, genotypic and phenotypic predictions and observations of F1 hybrids obtained from populations created by computer simulation are provided to illustrate our procedures.