Losses of biota from American aquatic communities due to acid rain

Models based on chemical survey data and geochemical assumptions were calibrated for areas where rates of acidification are known, then used to predict the declines in alkalinity and pH of lakes in the eastern and midwestern U.S.A. These results were combined with known acid tolerances of different taxonomic groups to estimate the extent of damage caused by acid rain to biological assemblages.An average of over 50% of the species in some taxonomic groups have probably been eliminated from lakes in the Adirondacks, Poconos-Catskills and southern New England. Moderate damage to biotic communities was predicted for lakes in central New England, and north-central Wisconsin. Damage predicted in Maine, upper Michigan, northeastern Minnesota and the remainder of the upper Great Lakes region was slight. Crustaceans, molluscs, leeches and insects were among the most severely affected groups. Among fishes, species of minnows (Cyprindae) were depleted in the most heavily acidified regions, with some declines in salmonid and centrarchid species.Predicted damage to individual lakes in all areas was highly variable. In areas receiving highly acidic deposition, 100% of the species in acid-sensitive taxonomic groups were eliminated in some lakes, while damage to other lakes was predicted to be slight.Estimated damage varied from lake to lake within each subregion, based on chemical characteristics. The most heavily damaged lakes in the Adirondacks and Pocono-Catskills have probably lost all species of molluscs, leeches and crustaceans. On the other hand, lakes of the Midwest showed either slight increases or decreases in the richness of predicted biotic communities.The possible ranges of original sulfate concentrations in lakes and the proportion of sulfuric acid in precipitation that liberated base cations from catchments were confined to relatively narrow limits by the model.