Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

A summer episode was modeled to address the expected response of ambient air O3 to hypothetical emission control scenarios in northeastern Mexico, and in particular in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA). This region is of interest because the MMA holds one of the worst air quality problems in the country and levels of air pollutants in the rest of northeastern Mexico are starting to be a concern. The MM5-SMOKE-CMAQ platform was used to conduct the numerical experiments. Twenty-four control scenarios were evaluated, combining the level of emission controls of O3 precursors (NO(x) and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) from 0% to 50%. For the MMA, VOC-only controls result in the best option to reduce O3 concentrations, though the benefit is limited to the urban core. This same strategy results in negligible benefits for the rest of northeastern Mexico. NO(x) controls result in an increase in O3 concentration within the MMA of up to 20 ppbv and a decrease at downwind locations of up to 11 ppbv, with respect to the base-case scenario. Indicator ratios were also used to probe for NO(x)-sensitive and VOC-sensitive areas. Locations with an important influence of NO(x) point sources (i.e., Monclova and Nava/Acuña) are quite sensitive to changes in NO(x) emissions. Border cities in the Rio Bravo/Grande Valley tend to be marginally NO(x)-sensitive. Overall, the MMA seems to be dominated by a VOC-sensitive regime, while the rest of the region would tend to have a NO(x)-sensitive response. The results obtained serve to expand the current knowledge on the chemical regimes that dominate this region (VOC- or NO(x)-sensitive), and thus could help guide public policies related to emission regional control strategies.