Expectations about single event probabilities in the first year of life: The influence of perceptual and statistical...

Recent evidence suggests that infants can generate expectations about future events from a sample of probabilistic data. However, little is known about the conditions that support the development of this ability. Three experiments tested the prediction that 8- and 12-month-olds respond to base rates as well as perceptual cues when they generate expectations from a sample of probabilistic data. Results revealed that 12-month-olds were sensitive to the statistical and perceptual properties of the evidence depending on the distribution of high-to-low base rate items in the sample. Specifically, 12-month-olds focused on perceptual features of the evidence when a sample was large and more skewed (e.g., 6:1), whereas they attended to statistical properties when the sample was smaller and less skewed (e.g., 4:1). In contrast, eight-month-olds always focused on the perceptual features of the evidence. Neither group generated expectations from a small, less skewed sample (e.g., 2:1). These results suggest that the ability to generate expectations about future events is mediated by specific features of the available evidence and undergoes significant change during the 1^st year of life.