[Grading forecast research for pathogenesis of allergic rhinitis directed by meteorological elements]

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Allergology

Background:

• Allergic rhinitis (AR) poses a significant public health challenge.
• Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on AR onset is crucial for prediction and management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the onset of allergic rhinitis (AR).
• To establish a predictive model for AR epidemiological trends.

Main Methods:

• Utilized skin prick test (SPT) data for AR patients and meteorological data from Beijing (2007-2010).
• Employed statistical analysis, including SPSS 16.0, to assess correlations and probability distributions.
• Developed nonlinear prediction models and a 4-grade AR epidemiological trend index.

Main Results:

• A significant correlation was found between AR onset and air temperature and vapor pressure (P < 0.001).
• The peak for air temperature and vapor pressure occurred one month prior to the AR onset peak (August 15-30).
• Established nonlinear prediction models and a 4-grade index for AR onset trends.

Conclusions:

• The developed index grade forecast for AR onset provides significant guidance for diagnosis and prophylaxis.
• Offers objective reference information for public health departments to manage AR outbreaks.