Epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in Wenchuan earthquake stricken area: population-based study

To explore spatio-temporal distribution and associated factors of pulmonary tuberculosis in Wenchuan earthquake stricken area.

Case count, county's location, demographic, health, and social economics data were collected. Longitudinal multilevel model of extra-Poisson and spatial clustering analysis Besag and Newell's method were used.

The incidence rate decreased from 117.59 to 81.04/100,000, and the associated factors included time, latitude of the county, proportion of people aged no more than 29 years, and the disaster-affected severity of the county. The temporal distribution of mortality rate was parabolic, with a summit in 2008. The associated factors included time, whether or not the county is minority inhabited area, and the disaster-affected severity of the county. Two clustered regions of incidence rate were detected with little variations before and after the quake, which were Aba-Ganzi region and Liangshan-Leshan border region. The clustered regions of mortality rate detected were five counties located in Aba-Ganzi region in 2008, and no cluster was detected during other years.

Tuberculosis epidemiology demonstrates a special spatio-temporal distribution pattern. Wenchuan earthquake has effects especially on mortality rate. Natural, demographic, and social factors also contribute.