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A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.
Eelco J Rohling1, Ivan D Haigh2, Gavin L Foster2
11] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia [2] Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
Scientific Reports
|December 17, 2013
Summary
Greenhouse gas increases are causing rapid sea-level rise (SLR), committing us to over 9 meters long-term. Geological data show current SLR is unprecedentedly fast but within natural ranges, with projections up to 1.8 meters by 2100.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Glaciology
- Paleoclimatology
Background:
- Ice-age cycles show continental ice volume tracking slow climate forcing over millennia.
- Current rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases outpace ice-volume responses, committing to significant long-term sea-level rise (SLR).
Purpose of the Study:
- To establish a context of naturally precedented sea-level rise (SLR) using geological evidence.
- To compare historical SLR observations and future projections with past interglacial periods.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of geological evidence for past sea-level changes.
- Comparison of historical SLR data and glaciological assessments with paleoclimate data.
Main Results:
- Projections indicate SLR of 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200 (relative to 2000) at 68% (95%) probability.
- Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments align with the upper 68% probability limit.
- Modern SLR is rapid compared to past interglacial standards but falls within 'normal' process ranges.
Conclusions:
- The upper 95% probability limit represents a low-probability, high-risk scenario.
- Exceeding the upper 95% limit would necessitate conditions beyond natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse or major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.
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