A prognostic model for triple-negative breast cancer patients based on node status, cathepsin-D and Ki-67 index

The aim of this study was to evaluate clinicopathologic factors that could possibly affect the outcome of patients with triple negative breast cancer and subsequently build a prognostic model to predict patients' outcome.

We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics and outcome of 504 patients diagnosed with triple-negative invasive ductal breast cancer. 185 patients enrolled between 2000 and 2002 were designated to the training set. The variables that had statistically significant correlation with prognosis were combined to build a model. The prognostic value of the model was further validated in the separate validation set containing 319 patients enrolled between 2003 and 2006.

The median follow-up duration was 66 months. 174 patients experienced recurrence, and 111 patients died. Positivity for ≥4 lymph nodes, Cathepsin-D positivity, and Ki-67 index ≥20% were independent factors for DFS, while the lymph nodes status and Ki-67 index were the prognostic factors for OS. The prognostic model was established based on the sum of all three factors, where positivity for ≥4 lymph nodes, Cathepsin-D and Ki-67 index ≥20% would individually contribute 1 point to the risk score. The patients in the validation set were assigned to a low-risk group (0 and 1 point) and a high-risk group (2 and 3 points). The external validation analysis also demonstrated that our prognostic model provided the independent high predictive accuracy of recurrence.

This model has a considerable clinical value in predicting recurrence, and will help clinicians to design an appropriate level of adjuvant treatment and schedule adequate appointments of surveillance visits.