Movement between Mexico and Canada: Analysis of a New Migration Stream

In this analysis we use data from the Mexican Migration Project to contrast processes of Mexican migration to Canada and the United States. All migrants to Canada entered through the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program and consistent with program criteria, migration there is strongly predicted by marital status and number of dependents, yielding a migrant population that is made up of males of prime labor-force age who are married and have multiple children at home. In contrast, the vast majority of migrants to the United States are undocumented and thus self-selected without regard to marital status or parenthood. Migration to the United States is strongly predicted by age, and migration probabilities display the age curve classically associated with labor migration. Within countries of destination, migrants to Canada enjoy superior labor market outcomes compared with those to the United States, with higher wages and more compact work schedules that yield higher earnings and shorter periods away from families compared with undocumented migrants to the United States. Labor migration to Canada also tends to operate as a circular flow with considerable repeat migration whereas undocumented migrants to the United States do not come and go so regularly, as crossing the Mexico-U.S. border has become increasingly difficult and costly.