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On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption
1Mathematica Policy Research, 600 Maryland Avenue SW, Suite 550, Washington, DC 20024-2512, USA.
Journal of Population Economics
|December 20, 2013
Summary
Population aging, driven by lower fertility and longer lives, impacts consumption. While longer lifespans encourage more children, increased transfers may paradoxically reduce fertility, accelerating aging.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Economics
- Sociology
Background:
- Global populations are aging due to declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy.
- Intergenerational transfers play a significant role in economic models of aging populations.
- Understanding consumption possibilities is crucial for economic policy in aging societies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of population aging on consumption patterns.
- To investigate the role of intergenerational transfers in shaping fertility responses to longevity.
- To model the complex dynamics between fertility, longevity, and consumption.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a continuous-time overlapping generations (OLG) model.
- Incorporated probabilistic lifecourse transitions between three population groups: youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents.
- Analyzed the effects of demographic shifts on consumption possibilities.
Main Results:
- Increased longevity, under certain conditions, theoretically maximizes consumption through higher fertility.
- However, the presence of substantial intergenerational transfer payments can invert this response.
- Larger transfer payments are predicted to lead to decreased fertility, exacerbating population aging.
Conclusions:
- Policy interventions, particularly transfer payments, can have unintended consequences on fertility and population aging.
- Economic models highlight the delicate balance between longevity, fertility, and consumption.
- Further research is needed to refine predictions and inform policy regarding aging populations.
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