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Area of Science:

  • Mathematical modeling
  • Sports analytics

Background:

  • Continuous-time Markov chain models (CTMCs) are widely used in animal behavior studies.
  • Their application to Australian Football League (AFL) matches has not been extensively explored.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the suitability of CTMCs for modeling AFL match dynamics.
  • To determine if a semi-Markov chain model is more appropriate for AFL data.
  • To establish a foundation for simulating AFL match outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of four AFL matches using event categorization.
  • Testing CTMC assumptions, including time, distance, and speed associated with transitions.
  • Comparison of transition probabilities and associated metrics across matches.

Main Results:

  • The Markov assumption was found to be valid for AFL match data.
  • However, non-exponential distributions for speed, time, and distance suggest a semi-Markov model is more appropriate.
  • Transition probabilities and associated metrics showed similarity across the analyzed matches.

Conclusions:

  • Semi-Markov chain models can effectively model and simulate AFL gameplay.
  • Further development requires identifying team-specific events and transition directions for predictive accuracy.