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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

Lyndon D Estes¹, Lydie-Line Paroz, Bethany A Bradley

¹Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, U.S.A.; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, U.S.A.. lestes@princeton.edu.

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology

|December 31, 2013

Summary

Climate change may alter agricultural land use, impacting biodiversity conservation. This study quantifies how changing climate affects the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands, identifying areas at risk of conversion.

Keywords:

South Africa Sudáfrica Triticum aestivum Zea mays agricultural utility cambio climático climate change conservation area costo de oportunidad crop model modelo de cultivo opportunity cost utilidad agricultural Área de conservación

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Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm

Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm

Published on: December 9, 2012

Area of Science:

Ecology
Conservation Biology
Climate Change Science

Background:

Biodiversity research often overlooks human responses to climate change.
Human adaptation strategies, particularly in agriculture, can significantly impact ecosystems.
Conservation planning needs to account for indirect climate change effects.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantify the potential alteration of agricultural utility in South African conservation lands due to climate change.
To assess the risk of land conversion for agriculture within conservation areas.
To develop a transferable method for integrating human responses into conservation planning.

Main Methods:

Assessed agricultural utility based on economic benefits (land productivity) and costs (topographic ruggedness).
Utilized the DSSAT4.5 model with 36 crop-climate scenarios to project maize and wheat production.
Quantified current and future agricultural utility in key South African conservation lands.

Main Results:

Most conservation lands exhibit low agricultural utility due to rugged terrain, both currently and in the future.
Several conservation areas are predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility, posing a risk of conversion.
Some areas are projected to decrease in agricultural utility, potentially aiding conservation efforts.

Conclusions:

Human responses to climate change, especially agricultural shifts, pose significant threats to biodiversity.
Conservation planning must incorporate assessments of changing agricultural utility to mitigate risks.
The developed method offers a transferable approach for proactive conservation in the face of climate change.