Lauriston S. Taylor lecture on radiation protection and measurements: when does risk assessment get fuzzy?

This article examines the question, "Is risk assessment fuzzy, or is it a quantitative science?" In the context of this paper, risk assessment is defined as the estimation of health risk to people from exposure to radioactive materials and chemicals when they are released to the environment by a source. Today we employ risk assessment to investigate past, present, and future exposures, and the outcomes of the analysis are used for determining compliance with regulations, emergency response, facility design, and health impacts to populations from historical exposures (dose reconstruction). Risk assessment has become an essential component of government policy and decision-making, and it is clear it will be used increasingly in the future. It has undergone a dramatic evolution since the early 1970s both as a scientific methodology and also in how it is used. The key to understanding risk assessment is to explain the basic components and unique disciplines that meld it together. Each element requires skills in fundamental sciences such as engineering, physics, mathematics, and physiology in order to produce information required for the next step. As each step is developed, a clear interdependence emerges, resulting in a science that is quantitative and reliable and provides a tool for many purposes. In the end, however, it is how we communicate the results that becomes the most important component. Introduction of the Taylor Lecture (Video 1:36, http://links.lww.com/HP/A19).