Related Experiment Videos
Risk management of domino effects considering dynamic consequence analysis
Nima Khakzad1, Faisal Khan, Paul Amyotte
1Safety and Risk Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada.
Summary
Dynamic consequence analysis offers a more rational approach to managing domino effects, which are severe industrial accidents. This method, using Bayesian networks, helps reduce accident escalation probability by optimizing chemical inventory management.
Area of Science:
- Chemical Engineering
- Industrial Safety
- Risk Management
Background:
- Domino effects are low-probability, high-consequence accidents with severe impacts on people, infrastructure, and the environment.
- Traditional safety measures like safety distances and inventories often rely on static accident scenarios, which may not fully capture dynamic risks.
- Preventive safety measures are prioritized over mitigative ones due to the uncontrollable nature and wide-ranging effects of domino accidents.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate that dynamic consequence analysis is a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects compared to static analysis.
- To present the application of Bayesian networks and conflict analysis for risk-based chemical inventory allocation.
- To highlight chemical inventory management as an inherent safety measure, especially for existing facilities.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of static worst-case accident scenarios versus dynamic consequence analysis.
- Application of Bayesian networks for modeling accident escalation probabilities.
- Utilization of conflict analysis for optimizing chemical inventory distribution.
Main Results:
- Dynamic consequence analysis provides a more rational basis for risk assessment and management of domino effects than static analyses.
- Bayesian networks and conflict analysis enable effective risk-based allocation of chemical inventories.
- Optimized inventory management can significantly minimize consequences and reduce domino effect escalation probability.
Conclusions:
- Dynamic consequence analysis is superior to static analysis for assessing and managing domino effects.
- Risk-based inventory management, particularly in existing plants, is a crucial inherent safety strategy.
- Integrating dynamic analysis with advanced network techniques offers enhanced safety for process industries.
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