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The convergence coefficient across political systems.

Maria Gallego1, Norman Schofield2

  • 1Center in Political Economy, Washington University, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130, USA ; Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3C5.

Thescientificworldjournal
|January 4, 2014
PubMed
Summary

Political parties do not always converge to the electoral mean. A new valence model reveals that electoral systems and political regimes significantly influence whether parties move towards or away from the center.

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Electoral Studies
  • Comparative Politics

Background:

  • Traditional electoral models predict party convergence towards the electoral mean.
  • Recent empirical research challenges this convergence hypothesis.
  • Existing models do not fully explain observed party positioning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend the stochastic electoral model by incorporating electoral valence.
  • To introduce and analyze a "convergence coefficient" (c) to explain nonconvergence.
  • To investigate the factors influencing party convergence and divergence across different political systems.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a stochastic valence model.
  • Utilizing electoral surveys for empirical analysis.
  • Calculation of the convergence coefficient (c) across various countries and electoral systems.

Main Results:

  • The convergence coefficient (c) demonstrates significant variation across elections, countries, and political regimes.
  • Proportional electoral systems (Israel, Turkey, Poland) exhibit high centrifugal tendencies.
  • Majoritarian systems (US, UK) show low centrifugal tendencies; anocracies impose limitations on opposition party movement.

Conclusions:

  • Electoral valence is a crucial factor in understanding party convergence and divergence.
  • The interplay between electoral systems and political regimes shapes party strategies.
  • Findings challenge the universal applicability of the convergence principle in electoral politics.