Nutritional status and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Predictions for 2020

The subject of the future regarding nutritional status and food security, and of their ramifications in terms of nutrition-related disorders/diseases in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) populations, is a complex one. As well as social unrest, a country's socioeconomic situation may affect food availability and, crucially, influence the generally low proportions of the Gross National Product devoted to health services. Additional determinants include changes in the roles of non-dietary adverse factors (i.e. smoking practice, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity) and of infections (i.e. gastroenteritis, malaria, tuberculosis and, particularly, HIV). As to future health in 2020, major increases in socioeconomic status are very unlikely; in fact, there has been a deterioration in some countries with food shortages affecting nutrition status and food security. However, with some measures of prosperity there are likely to be decreases in family size and falls in the proportions of children born with low birthweights or with protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM), and of children lying under the 5th percentile of growth reference standards. Simultaneously, though. there will be variable rises, especially in urban dwellers, in the occurrence of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain cancers. Improvements in the health status of both children and adults are likely to be strongly affected by whether HIV infection can be controlled or whether it becomes rampant.