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Books average previous decade of economic misery.

R Alexander Bentley1, Alberto Acerbi1, Paul Ormerod2

  • 1Department of Archaeology & Anthropology, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.

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Summary

Economic conditions significantly influence literature. A literary misery index derived from books strongly correlates with the U.S. economic misery index (inflation and unemployment rates) over the past decade.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Literary Studies
  • Sociology

Background:

  • The 20th century saw significant economic fluctuations, including the Great Depression.
  • Literature often reflects societal conditions, but a quantitative link to economic indicators has been less explored.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the correlation between literary sentiment and economic conditions.
  • To establish a quantitative relationship between a 'literary misery index' and the economic misery index.

Main Methods:

  • Derived a 'literary misery index' from English language books published since the Great Depression.
  • Calculated a moving average of the annual U.S. economic misery index (sum of inflation and unemployment rates).
  • Analyzed correlations using different measurement techniques and compared with other emotion indices, including robustness checks with German literature and economic data.

Main Results:

  • A strong correlation was found between the literary misery index and the 11-year moving average of the U.S. economic misery index.
  • This correlation remained significant across different methods for calculating the literary index and was superior to correlations with other emotion indices.
  • Similar robust correlations were observed between German literature and the German economic misery index.

Conclusions:

  • Published literature appears to reflect and average authors' shared economic experiences over approximately the preceding decade.
  • This study provides a quantitative link between macroeconomic conditions and literary output, suggesting literature as a barometer of economic well-being.