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Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence
Juha Merilä1, Andrew P Hendry2
1Ecological Genetics Research Unit, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki Helsinki, Finland.
Evolutionary Applications
|January 24, 2014
Summary
Distinguishing genetic adaptation from phenotypic plasticity due to climate change remains challenging. While some evidence exists, more rigorous studies are needed to confirm widespread genetic adaptation in natural populations.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
- Climate Change Biology
- Population Genetics
Background:
- Numerous studies report phenotypic changes in natural populations linked to climate change.
- Significant uncertainty exists regarding the interpretation of these phenotypic changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review and evaluate methods for inferring climate change impacts on populations.
- To assess the evidence for genetic adaptation versus phenotypic plasticity.
- To identify limitations in current research and propose improved inferential approaches.
Main Methods:
- Methodological review of studies investigating phenotypic changes in response to climate change.
- Evaluation of the strength of evidence for genetic basis, adaptive significance, and causal attribution to climate change.
- Synthesis of findings from 11 accompanying review articles covering diverse taxa and theoretical frameworks.
Main Results:
- Distinguishing genetic adaptation from phenotypic plasticity is methodologically difficult.
- The adaptive nature of phenotypic changes is often assumed rather than empirically tested.
- Evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change is currently scarce, though present in some systems.
Conclusions:
- Current evidence for widespread genetic adaptation to climate change is limited.
- Improved inferential methods are crucial for future research on climate change responses.
- Further studies employing robust methodologies are necessary to draw general conclusions.
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